Formatting WIN. Anyway, let's take a look. In general, BAdPA is a little lower than OPS, except for Reyes. But that's because he steals a ton. The only one whose BAdPA was higher than their OPS was Three True Outcomes posterboy Jack Cust. The biggest over-inflated ones on the other end were Youkilis and Aurilia. Aurilia is essentially a pure singles hitter, but Youk was in the middle of a season that saw a surge in his power numbers. So that one's a little weird. I might run this again with the full season's 2008 stats and some different players. If anybody has ideas for seasons they want to see, let me know! | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Friday, June 5, 2009
Bases Advanced vs. OPS
Well, technically, Bases Advanced per Plate Appearance (BAdPA) vs. OPS. These numbers are based on stats taken midway through the 2008 season.
The Rest of the Numbers
Sorry I left you guys hanging there. I'm sure the suspense was killing you.
Anyway, applying that same technique to advancement on BB/HBP, 1B, 3B, and HR, I determined that each of those batting events are worth the following number of bases:
BB/HBP - 1.40
1B - 1.78
2B - 3.25
3B - 4.38
HR - 5.38
So in summary, a player's Bases Advanced is equal to
1.40*(BB+HBP) + 1.78*(1B) + 3.25*(2B) + 4.38*(3B) + 5.38*(HR) + SB + S + SF
where SB is stolen bases (advancing yourself a base), S is sacrifices (advancing your teammate a base), and SF is sac flies (advancing your teammate a base). If I really wanted to make this hardcore, I could try to figure out how many bases teammates advance on the average out, specifically non-strikeouts. But what I have there is just a first treatment to present the concept.
A useful stat could be either Bases Advanced per Out, or Bases Advanced per Plate Appearance (BAdPA). BAdPA would be a decent stat to compare to OPS. I'll do a little comparison here, and then compare some actual player's numbers later.
To first order, OPS treats a walk as being 1 base, a single as 2, a double as 3, a triple as 4 and a homer as 5. So OPS appears to undervalue walks and extra-base hits compared to BAdPA, while overvaluing singles. I'd expect that BAdPA would be higher compared to OPS for Three True Outcomes hitters, while lower vs. OPS for contact hitters.
Anyway, applying that same technique to advancement on BB/HBP, 1B, 3B, and HR, I determined that each of those batting events are worth the following number of bases:
BB/HBP - 1.40
1B - 1.78
2B - 3.25
3B - 4.38
HR - 5.38
So in summary, a player's Bases Advanced is equal to
1.40*(BB+HBP) + 1.78*(1B) + 3.25*(2B) + 4.38*(3B) + 5.38*(HR) + SB + S + SF
where SB is stolen bases (advancing yourself a base), S is sacrifices (advancing your teammate a base), and SF is sac flies (advancing your teammate a base). If I really wanted to make this hardcore, I could try to figure out how many bases teammates advance on the average out, specifically non-strikeouts. But what I have there is just a first treatment to present the concept.
A useful stat could be either Bases Advanced per Out, or Bases Advanced per Plate Appearance (BAdPA). BAdPA would be a decent stat to compare to OPS. I'll do a little comparison here, and then compare some actual player's numbers later.
To first order, OPS treats a walk as being 1 base, a single as 2, a double as 3, a triple as 4 and a homer as 5. So OPS appears to undervalue walks and extra-base hits compared to BAdPA, while overvaluing singles. I'd expect that BAdPA would be higher compared to OPS for Three True Outcomes hitters, while lower vs. OPS for contact hitters.
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