Sorry I left you guys hanging there. I'm sure the suspense was killing you.
Anyway, applying that same technique to advancement on BB/HBP, 1B, 3B, and HR, I determined that each of those batting events are worth the following number of bases:
BB/HBP - 1.40
1B - 1.78
2B - 3.25
3B - 4.38
HR - 5.38
So in summary, a player's Bases Advanced is equal to
1.40*(BB+HBP) + 1.78*(1B) + 3.25*(2B) + 4.38*(3B) + 5.38*(HR) + SB + S + SF
where SB is stolen bases (advancing yourself a base), S is sacrifices (advancing your teammate a base), and SF is sac flies (advancing your teammate a base). If I really wanted to make this hardcore, I could try to figure out how many bases teammates advance on the average out, specifically non-strikeouts. But what I have there is just a first treatment to present the concept.
A useful stat could be either Bases Advanced per Out, or Bases Advanced per Plate Appearance (BAdPA). BAdPA would be a decent stat to compare to OPS. I'll do a little comparison here, and then compare some actual player's numbers later.
To first order, OPS treats a walk as being 1 base, a single as 2, a double as 3, a triple as 4 and a homer as 5. So OPS appears to undervalue walks and extra-base hits compared to BAdPA, while overvaluing singles. I'd expect that BAdPA would be higher compared to OPS for Three True Outcomes hitters, while lower vs. OPS for contact hitters.
Friday, June 5, 2009
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I know that it would be pretty much impossible given the data but if you wanted to get really REALLY hardcore you could do the percentages and calculate numbers for sacrifices because sometimes two runners advance
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