Well, it looks like baseball-reference.com has all the data I could ever conceivably want. For each player, they have "Hit Trajectory" data -- dividing their balls in play into ground balls, fly balls, and line drives. But that's the extent of the data. The rest is going to be all theoretical.
Just like with hits and walks, which were easy, I'll have to decide how many bases runners occupying given bases will advance on each type of out.
For example, let's say that with men on 1st and 3rd, a fly ball out will advance the runner from 3rd 60% of the time and the runner from 1st 5% of the time. In that case a fly ball out with men on 1st and 3rd is worth 0.65 bases advanced.
I'm going to find the number of bases advanced for each type of out, so that I can tack on an additional number to my original formula that goes like:
Advancement on Outs
= (Average Bases Advanced on Fly Ball Out) x (Fly Ball Outs)
+ (Average Bases Advanced on Ground Ball Out) x (Ground Ball Outs)
+ (Average Bases Advanced on Line Drive Out) x (Line Drive Outs)
where I use baseball theory to determine the coefficients and baseball-reference's data to get the actual number of those kinds of outs.
The next bunch of posts will be working out that theory.
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Or better yet you could make your stat famous and make it important enough so that people (like baseball reference) keep a running tally on the stat throughout the season so you don't need to do these calculations
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